Shillong, Jan 7: Shillong often hailed as the “Scotland of the East” for its cool climate and lush greenery, is quietly losing its natural charm. Beneath its postcard-perfect façade lies a growing environmental crisis: the rise of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect.
A new study by researchers Parimita Saikia, Preety War, Lapynshai M. Umlong, and Bibhash Nath, published in Remote Sensing, offers a stark warning about the impact of unchecked urban growth on the city’s land surface temperature (LST). If current trends continue, Shillong could be significantly warmer—and less livable—by 2050.
From Green to Gray
In the last 30 years, Shillong’s landscape has undergone a seismic shift. Once dominated by open fields and green cover, the city has seen its settlement areas balloon from 6.40% of its total area in 1993 to 17.36% in 2023.
Researchers from Assam Royal Global University, North-Eastern Hill University, and Hunter College in New York traced this transformation, driven by rapid construction on barren land and the erosion of natural spaces.
The study categorized Shillong’s terrain into five types: agricultural land, barren land, settlement, vegetation, and water bodies. The results were striking:
- Settlement areas (homes, roads, businesses) surged the most.
- Barren land shrank drastically, from 40.87% in 1993 to just 6.82% in 2023.
The city, it seems, is trading green for gray.
A City Under Heat
Using satellite imagery and advanced CA-Markov modeling, the researchers studied LST changes over the decades. Their findings paint a troubling picture of Shillong heating up across all land categories.
- Settlement areas saw the steepest climb: from 17.45°C in 1993 to 21.75°C in 2023 (+4.3°C).
- Agricultural and barren lands warmed even faster, with increases of 4.5°C and 4.9°C, respectively.
- While vegetation and water bodies remained relatively cooler, even these zones recorded a 4°C rise.
The days of Shillong as a reliably cool retreat may be numbered.
A Look Ahead
By 2030, settlement areas are projected to occupy 21.39% of Shillong’s area, and by 2050, they could surge to 28.56%. This expansion will likely claim more farmland, green spaces, and water bodies, further exacerbating the UHI effect.
The study reveals a dramatic shift in temperature zones. In 1993, 27.95% of the city had temperatures below 12°C. By 2023, these cooler areas had nearly disappeared. By 2050, Shillong could see significant portions of its landscape exceeding 23°C—a worrying milestone for a city once celebrated for its pleasant climate.
Can Shillong Stay Cool?
The study doesn’t just highlight problems; it also offers solutions to help Shillong reclaim its natural balance:
- Green the City: Expand urban forests and parks to counter rising heat.
- Protect Water Bodies: Safeguard rivers, streams, and wetlands, which act as natural air conditioners.
- Plan Sustainably: Encourage eco-friendly construction and limit impervious surfaces.
- Involve the Public: Build awareness about the importance of ecological balance and how every individual can contribute.
A Global Lesson
Shillong’s challenges are a cautionary tale for cities worldwide. As urban centers expand, unchecked growth risks destroying the very environments that make them unique.
For Shillong, the battle against rising temperatures isn’t just about saving a city—it’s about preserving an identity. Will it rise to the challenge, or will the “Scotland of the East” become another casualty of unplanned urbanization?
Only time will tell, but the clock is ticking.
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